Rivalitas Geopolitik Amerika Serikat-Rusia, Perang Proksi dan Eskalasi Konflik di Suriah tahun 2011-2024

Yustisia, Ulfa Rahma (2026) Rivalitas Geopolitik Amerika Serikat-Rusia, Perang Proksi dan Eskalasi Konflik di Suriah tahun 2011-2024. Tugas Akhir (S1) - thesis, Universitas Bakrie.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana rivalitas geopolitik antara Amerika Serikat dan Rusia berkontribusi terhadap eskalasi konflik di Suriah melalui mekanisme perang proksi pada periode 2011–2024. Variabel utama yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini adalah rivalitas geopolitik AS-Rusia sebagai kondisi awal, perang proksi sebagai mekanisme perantara, dan eskalasi konflik sebagai hasil akhir yang saling terhubung dalam satu rantai kausal. Hipotesis yang diajukan adalah bahwa rivalitas geopolitik antara AS dan Rusia mendorong kedua negara untuk menggunakan strategi perang proksi, yang pada gilirannya menyebabkan eskalasi konflik berkepanjangan di Suriah. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode studi kasus tunggal dan teknik penelusuran proses (process tracing), yang dilandasi oleh paradigma realisme. Data sekunder diperoleh dari literatur akademik, dokumen kebijakan resmi, laporan organisasi internasional, basis data konflik, serta pemberitaan media kredibel. Temuan penelitian menunjukkan bahwa AS menjalankan strategi proksi berbasis penyangkalan (plausible deniability) melalui Operation Timber Sycamore, pengiriman rudal TOW, pelatihan militer, berbagi intelijen, serta dukungan finansial dan diplomatik terhadap kelompok oposisi. Sebaliknya, Rusia menjalankan strategi proksi yang terbuka dan berlapis melalui pemasokan lebih dari 90 persen impor senjata Suriah, penempatan penasihat militer, pengerahan Wagner Group, dukungan finansial kepada Damaskus, hingga intervensi militer langsung pada September 2015. Kombinasi dukungan yang saling berhadapan tersebut mendorong eskalasi konflik dalam empat dimensi sekaligus, yaitu eskalasi vertikal, eskalasi horizontal, terbentuknya hambatan struktural terhadap negosiasi damai, serta perpanjangan durasi konflik. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa eskalasi konflik Suriah bukan semata-mata produk dinamika domestik, melainkan hasil yang secara sistematis didorong oleh rivalitas geopolitik AS - Rusia yang bekerja melalui mekanisme perang proksi. Kata kunci: Rivalitas Geopolitik, Perang Proksi, Eskalasi Konflik, AS-Rusia, Suriah This study aims to analyze how the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and Russia contributed to the escalation of the conflict in Syria through the mechanism of proxy war during the period 2011–2024. The main variables analyzed in this research are US-Russia geopolitical rivalry as the initial condition, proxy war as the intermediary mechanism, and conflict escalation as the final outcome, all interconnected within a single causal chain. The hypothesis proposed is that the geopolitical rivalry between the US and Russia drives both states to employ proxy war strategies, which in turn cause the prolonged escalation of the Syrian conflict. This research adopts a qualitative approach using a single case study method with process-tracing technique, grounded in the realism paradigm. Secondary data were obtained from academic literature, official policy documents, reports of international organizations, conflict databases, and credible media coverage. The findings show that the US pursued a proxy strategy emphasizing plausible deniability through Operation Timber Sycamore, the delivery of TOW anti-tank missiles, military training in third countries, intelligence sharing, and financial as well as diplomatic support for opposition groups. Conversely, Russia pursued an open and layered proxy strategy by supplying more than 90 percent of Syria's arms imports, deploying military advisers, mobilizing the Wagner Group, providing financial support to Damascus, and ultimately launching direct military intervention in September 2015. This combination of opposing support drove conflict escalation across four dimensions simultaneously, namely vertical escalation, horizontal escalation, the formation of structural barriers to peace negotiations, and the prolonged duration of the conflict. This study concludes that the escalation of the Syrian conflict is not merely a product of domestic dynamics, but rather a result systematically driven by the US - Russia geopolitical rivalry operating through the mechanism of proxy war. Keywords: Geopolitical Rivalry, Proxy War, Conflict Escalation, US-Russia, Syria

Item Type:	Thesis (Tugas Akhir (S1) - )
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Geopolitical Rivalry, Proxy War, Conflict Escalation, US-Russia, Syria
Subjects:	Political Science and International Relations > Geopolitics (Geopolitik) Thesis > Thesis (S1)
Divisions:	Fakultas Ekonomi dan Ilmu Sosial > Program Studi Ilmu Politik
Depositing User:	Ulfa Rahma Yustisia
Date Deposited:	07 Sep 2026 06:27
Last Modified:	07 Sep 2026 06:27
URI:	https://repository.bakrie.ac.id/id/eprint/14274

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