Nugroho, Yusuf Wahyu (2024) MODEL PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN MENGGUNAKAN INSTRUMEN KEUANGAN PADA PERUSAHAAN TERBUKA MANUFAKTUR DAN NON-MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA. Tesis (S2) - thesis, Universitas Bakrie.
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Abstract
This research examines bankruptcy predictions for manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies in Indonesia. The economic impact of the Covid 19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to global supply chains, reduced revenues and increased financial stress across industries. This study offers a bankruptcy prediction model using binary logistic regression analysis. This research develops a bankruptcy classification model that is more accurate and appropriate to the Indonesian economic context. This research uses the binary logistic regression method by analyzing 236 manufacturing companies and 487 non-manufacturing companies. The binary logistic regression model developed shows a high level of accuracy, namely 89.2% for manufacturing companies and 86.2% for non-manufacturing companies, in predicting financial distress. The main findings show that the bankruptcy prediction model in manufacturing companies is Y = 1 / (1 - exp (- (1.542 – 0.691 . CR + 2.593 . QR – 0.708 . DER – 0.027 D to Ebitda R – 30.149 . GPM + 3,357 . NPM + 22.787 . OPM + 19.885 . PBV + 1.383. Cash flow Ratio – 0.003 . Bankruptcy prediction model in non-manufacturing companies (1 - exp (- (0.530 – 0.203 . CR + 0.047 . QR + 0.000325 . DER – 0.026 D to Ebitda R + 1.136 . GPM – 0.013 . NPM + 5.484 . OPM – 0.529 . PretaxMargin + 4.810 . ROE + 1.30 1 . ROA + 0.014 . Cash to Debt Ratio - 4.128 . From this equation it was found that liquidity, profitability, cash flow and market ratios were positively correlated with bankruptcy risk, while the solvency ratio was negatively correlated.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Tesis (S2) - ) |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Financial Distress, Binary Logistic Regression, Corporate Bankruptcy, Bankruptcy Prediction, Altman Z-Score |
| Subjects: | Finance > Investment Finance > Liquidity Thesis > Thesis (S2) |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Ilmu Sosial > Program Studi Magister Management |
| Depositing User: | Yusuf Wahyu Nugroho |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Aug 2024 06:39 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Aug 2024 06:39 |
| URI: | https://repository.bakrie.ac.id/id/eprint/9833 |
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